Washington: U.S. President Donald Trump might pursue diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that is not tightly linked to denuclearization but could reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula and beyond, experts suggest. As Trump expresses intent to reengage with Kim, this potential shift in diplomatic tactics garners international attention.
According to Yonhap News Agency, experts believe the U.S. and North Korea could engage meaningfully after the conclusion of Russia's war in Ukraine. Trump's focus on ending the conflict and North Korea's current reliance on Moscow for support are potential catalysts for renewed dialogue. In a recent Fox News interview, Trump indicated a desire to reconnect with Kim, reviving his first-term diplomacy efforts, which included three in-person meetings. Rob Rapson, a retired U.S. diplomat, noted Trump's formation of a capable team at the National Security Council and State Department to pursue a potential 'deal' with North Korea.
Speculation about Trump's intentions has persisted, with many expecting a rekindling of his personal rapport with Kim, often referred to as a "bromance." Trump's recent remarks are the clearest indication yet of his desire to reach out to Kim. The two leaders previously met in Singapore, Hanoi, and the Korean Demilitarized Zone between 2018 and 2019.
Frank Aum, a former senior advisor at the Pentagon, pointed out that comments from Trump and his team suggest they view North Korea as a de facto nuclear power and seek to reduce tensions within this context. This could imply a deal allowing North Korea to retain its nuclear arsenal in the short term.
Trump's acknowledgment of North Korea as a "nuclear power" raised concerns in South Korea, which aims for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corp., speculated that Trump's terminology might be a strategic concession to draw Kim to the negotiating table.
In Seoul, there are concerns that Trump might prioritize arms reduction with Pyongyang over denuclearization, a crucial goal for South Korea. Experts believe Trump might explore short-term, realistic options should he engage with Kim.
The possibility of Trump sidelining South Korea is a concern, especially given the hawkish stance of the current South Korean administration towards North Korea. Effective diplomacy by Seoul will be crucial to avoid this scenario, according to Rapson.
The ongoing reliance of North Korea on Russia adds complexity to potential U.S.-North Korea negotiations. Harry Kazianis, president of the Rogue States Project, noted that Kim might not immediately respond to Trump's overtures due to economic benefits from the Ukraine conflict. However, the end of the war could prompt North Korea to reconsider its stance.
Washington and Pyongyang's substantive diplomacy may gain momentum once the war in Ukraine concludes. Analysts suggest that North Korean troops withdrawing from the conflict could pave the way for progress. Trump's eagerness to engage with Kim, evidenced by his personnel choices, highlights his interest in resuming dialogue with North Korea.