Seoul: A former senior South Korean diplomat has emphasized the necessity of maintaining denuclearization language in policy discussions concerning North Korea, warning that abandoning this focus could lead to a regional "nuclear domino" effect and other significant consequences.
According to Yonhap News Agency, Cho Byung-jae, who previously served as Seoul's ambassador to Malaysia and chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, highlighted these concerns following the omission of denuclearization goals in recent security documents released by both Washington and Beijing. This omission has raised questions about their commitment to achieving the objective.
Cho underscored the critical role of denuclearization efforts in ensuring regional security and diplomacy. He cautioned that recognizing North Korea as a nuclear weapon state could destabilize the region and undermine the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. He described denuclearization as a "common denominator" for diplomatic engagement among Seoul, Washington, and Beijing, which allows for discussions on regional security, including issues on the Korean Peninsula.
Cho also noted that denuclearization serves as strategic leverage, potentially influencing not only North Korea but also Russia and China. It legitimizes pressure on these countries and supports trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. However, he acknowledged that the prospects for North Korea's denuclearization have become more remote, given Pyongyang's expanded nuclear capabilities and its integration of nuclear weapons into its national security policy.
In addressing the North's security challenge, Cho proposed reinforcing deterrence, reducing risks of unintended escalation, and pursuing diplomacy with Pyongyang. He emphasized the importance of a "management strategy" to maintain a long-term perspective on denuclearization rather than seeking immediate results.
The recent omission of denuclearization commitments by Washington and Beijing has raised concerns in Seoul about a potential shift in policy focus, despite the growing nuclear and missile threats from Pyongyang.
When asked about a potential meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un next year, Cho expressed skepticism. He suggested that Kim might be reluctant to engage in another summit with Trump, given his current focus on consolidating power domestically and the risk of another unsuccessful outcome, as seen during the 2019 Hanoi summit.
Conversely, Jun Bong-geun, professor emeritus at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, expressed optimism about the possibility of a Trump-Kim summit. He mentioned that resolving the crisis could advance Trump's pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize and noted North Korea's continued need for sanctions relief, which is not fully supported by its northern partners.