Seoul: The Korean economy finds itself in a precarious position following the initiation of U.S. President Donald Trump's country-specific "reciprocal" tariffs, which were implemented on Tuesday afternoon, Korea time. This development led to a quick dip in the Kospi index, which fell below the 2,300 mark as the market reacted to the potential consequences.
According to Yonhap News Agency, the United States has imposed an additional 50 percent tariff in retaliation against China's countermeasures, raising the total U.S. tariff on Chinese goods to 104 percent. This aggressive move suggests Washington's willingness to potentially halt trade entirely. In response, China has devalued the yuan, raising concerns that the tariff conflict could escalate into a currency war. The depreciation of the yuan has had an adverse impact on the Korean won, which fell to 1,484.1 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, marking its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
The outlook for Korea's economy, already bleak, continues to worsen. The Asian Development Bank has downgraded its 2025 growth forecast for Korea to 1.5 percent, while some investment banks, such as JPMorgan, predict growth could fall below 1 percent. Additionally, expectations that Korea's inclusion in the World Government Bond Index would attract foreign capital have been tempered, as the decision has been postponed to next April.
In response to these challenges, acting President Han Duck-soo engaged in his first phone call with Trump this week, a necessary albeit overdue step. Trade Minister Chung In-kyo has also initiated negotiations in Washington, though the influence of ministerial-level discussions is limited. A recent visit by EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic ended without success, as key U.S. officials lacked the authority to conclude any agreement. Throughout Trump's administration, the power to make trade decisions has resided solely with the president.
To navigate this crisis effectively, Korea must avoid internal divisions. Former trade officials frequently point out that domestic political discord can be more detrimental than external pressures. Unity across government, business, and political sectors is crucial. Other countries offer models to emulate; Mexico kept the public informed during trade negotiations, while Canada transformed U.S. pressure into a moment of political unity. Korea must also pursue a coordinated, transparent strategy within the framework of existing free trade agreements.
Addressing this challenge will require more than quiet diplomacy; it necessitates the full engagement of national consensus.