Seoul: The war in Iran has dealt a blow to South Korea on both the security and economic fronts. The economy is reeling from the fallout of the Middle East conflict, as the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz shows little sign of ending anytime soon. Meanwhile, North Korea's anxious response to the war has created a more dangerous security environment on the Korean Peninsula.
According to Yonhap News Agency, since the outbreak of the conflict on Feb. 28, North Korea has intensified its efforts to enhance the lethality and accuracy of its weapons systems. On Sunday, it launched a Hwasong-11 Ra, a sophisticated member of its solid-fuel ballistic missile series, from an undisclosed location. This short-range ballistic missile is equipped with cluster munitions carrying multiple bomblets designed to cover a wide area. The Korean Central News Agency reported that leader Kim Jong-un observed the test and expressed satisfaction with the weapon. This launch marked the fourth such test this month and the seventh this year.
North Korea's series of missile tests is seen as a reflection of insecurity, a form of fear-driven signaling. U.S. strikes against Iran, along with the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicol¡s Maduro, have led to speculation about potential future U.S. targets, including Kim Jong-un. However, this speculation has been met with skepticism, as striking a nuclear-armed state like North Korea involves far greater risks than attacking non-nuclear states.
Kim Jong-un's demonstration of military capability seems intended to convey a message that North Korea is not Iran, and any U.S. strike would incur significant costs. The conflict in Iran has further accelerated North Korea's development of tactical weapons under the guise of self-defense and deterrence, escalating security risks for South Korea.
Economically, the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly impacted South Korea's oil-dependent economy. A ceasefire between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other would help stabilize oil prices and global markets. Nevertheless, recovery will be slow, as oil-rich Gulf countries have also faced substantial damage. Iran's attacks on regional energy infrastructure have further complicated the situation.
South Korea has limited influence over ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. The resolution of the Strait of Hormuz situation and stabilization of oil prices largely depend on developments beyond Seoul's control. For now, the best course of action is to hope for a swift resolution.
On the security front, South Korea's options are also limited, though not entirely absent. North Korea's responses to the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East exhibit a notable contrast. It has supported Russia's invasion by sending troops and supplying conventional weapons, yet it has refrained from direct involvement in Iran. This restraint suggests that Pyongyang understands the costs of deeper engagement, particularly given its past military ties with Tehran.
This differentiated behavior indicates that Kim Jong-un is acting rationally, weighing costs and benefits. This has implications for South Korea's policy approach. Since taking office in June last year, President Lee Jae Myung has extended several peace overtures, including a recent apology over drone incursions into Pyongyang's airspace. However, North Korea has not reciprocated, continuing its missile tests.
This pattern raises difficult questions about whether South Korea has effective tools to induce restraint from the North. It may be necessary to acknowledge that the scale of the North Korean threat exceeds South Korea's independent capacity to manage it. One option is to rely more heavily on the United States as its primary security guarantor, while still maintaining an important supporting role as a key stakeholder country.