Seoul: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday adjusted its growth forecast for South Korea, raising it slightly to 0.9 percent for 2025. This change comes as the effects of U.S. tariff measures have been less significant than initially anticipated.
According to Yonhap News Agency, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report increased South Korea's economic growth projection by 0.1 percentage point from its previous estimate in July. The IMF's growth forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 1.8 percent.
The report highlights that the United States has negotiated trade agreements with numerous countries, providing exemptions that kept the global trading system largely open. This has resulted in a smaller-than-expected impact from tariff increases.
Several major economies have successfully negotiated tariff agreements with former U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, aiming to reduce "reciprocal" tariffs and specific sector duties. South Korean officials are working to finalize a trade deal framework established in late July, which includes a $350 billion investment package from South Korea.
Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol is expected to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington, D.C., to conclude the agreement during international meetings later this week.
The IMF's revised forecast aligns with projections from other economic institutions. The Bank of Korea (BOK) recently raised its growth forecast for South Korea to 0.9 percent for this year, while the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has projected a 1 percent growth rate.
Despite a stable first half of the year, the IMF warns of a fragile outlook with risks skewed to the downside. The report notes that unresolved trade tensions and supply chain disruptions could potentially increase tariffs, reducing global output by 0.3 percent next year.