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BOK Unveils First ‘Dot Plot’; Majority Expect Rate Freeze Over Next 6 Months

Seoul: The central bank on Thursday released a "dot plot" for the first time showing its monetary policy board members' projections for the key rate over the next six months. The dot plot is a visual representation of where the seven members of the Bank of Korea (BOK)'s Monetary Policy Board, including Gov. Rhee Chang-yong, expect the benchmark interest rate to be in the future.

According to Yonhap News Agency, while the board held the key rate steady at 2.5 percent at its rate-setting meeting earlier in the day, 16 of the total 21 dots were clustered at 2.5 percent, indicating that most members expect the rate to remain unchanged over the next six months. Four dots were placed at 2.25 percent, 0.25 percentage point below the current rate, while one dot indicated 2.75 percent. The distribution suggests expectations for rate cuts outweigh those for a hike, which could be interpreted as a dovish stance.

Each of the seven board members submits three projections for the policy rate six months ahead for the chart, and members may have all three dots indicate the same rate level, if desired. The purpose of the BOK's dot plot is broadly similar to that of the Federal Reserve, though the format differs. The U.S. version is compiled based on projections from the 19 participants of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The BOK plans to release the dot plot four times a year -- in February, May, August and November -- alongside its economic forecasts, the officials said.

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