Tokyo: US President Donald Trump arrived in Japan on Monday, marking the second stop of his extensive five-day tour across Asia, which is noted as his longest journey abroad since taking office. His tour began at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where he played a pivotal role in orchestrating a peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia.
According to Deutsche Welle, the agreement, known as the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords, was built upon a ceasefire established after Trump's intervention in July, following a deadly resurgence of the long-standing Thailand-Cambodia border conflict. As part of the accord, Thailand agreed to release 18 Cambodian soldiers held since July. In addition to these diplomatic efforts, Trump signed reciprocal trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia. Vietnam also committed to increasing its purchases of US products, aiming to reduce a trade surplus projected to reach $123 billion in 2024.
Trump departed Malaysia for Japan, where he is set to engage with the country's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi, who recently assumed office, is eager to build a strong personal rapport with Trump to alleviate existing trade tensions. While en route to Tokyo on Air Force One, Trump expressed intentions to discuss the enduring "great friendship" between the US and Japan.
Since taking office, Trump's administration asserts it has resolved eight conflicts in eight months, a claim that Trump reiterated at the Kuala Lumpur summit. Phil Robertson, director of the Asia Human Rights and Labor Advocates, critiqued Trump's motivations, suggesting his involvement in the Thailand-Cambodia accord was driven by aspirations for a Nobel Peace Prize. Cambodia nominated Trump for the prize in July, following his intervention in the border disputes. Trump's leverage included the threat of increasing trade tariffs on US exports to Thailand and Cambodia to 49%, prompting both nations to settle for a 19% tariff.
The strategic use of trade pressure has been a significant factor in Trump's influence. Ian Chong, a political analyst in Singapore, notes that tariffs and trade are critical components of US leverage, especially given Southeast Asia's role in the global supply chain. The US Trade Representative's office estimates trade between the US and ASEAN nations will reach $475 billion in 2024, highlighting the importance of these economic ties for Southeast Asian economies.
Trump's administration has actively worked to prevent the Thai-Cambodia conflict from escalating, achieving a resolution much quicker than anticipated. The visit also provided an opportunity for Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar to engage directly with Trump, reinforcing Malaysia's reciprocal trade agreement with the US.
Chong emphasizes that regional leaders are keen to maintain strong ties with the US while avoiding over-reliance on China. The US has historically played a stabilizing role in Southeast Asia, ensuring unimpeded access to critical trade routes. A reduction in US commitment could lead to increased influence from China, potentially destabilizing the region.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, suggests that Trump's focus remains on securing quick wins and negotiating with China. While ASEAN engagements may appear secondary to Trump, Southeast Asian leaders have little choice but to align with his agenda. The upcoming meetings with Japan, South Korea, and particularly China, are seen as critical, with Trump aiming to secure significant investments and a potential deal with President Xi Jinping. Trump's trip may extend further should he decide to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, showcasing his strategic engagement across the region.