Seoul: With South Korea's economic growth forecast to weaken to as low as 1 percent, policymakers are urged to work on the extra budget proposal to boost the economy, while passing urgent business-related bills and setting up robust policy steps against a looming global trade war. Concerns about the country's slowing growth are mounting. According to Yonhap News Agency, British research firm Capital Economics projected that Korea's gross domestic product growth would slump to a mere 1 percent in 2025, citing political turmoil and the slowdown in the real estate market. The gloomy prospect comes as the political troubles over impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol continue, and external factors like the tariff war initiated by the US government threaten to worsen the overall economic conditions for Asia's fourth-biggest economy. While Capital Economics' projection is lower than many other domestic and international institutions' forecasts for Korea's GDP growth, other institutions still hold a pessimistic view. J PMorgan forecasts a 1.2 percent GDP growth, while Citibank sets the figure at 1.4 percent. The Finance Economy maintains a GDP growth rate of 1.8 percent, but the state-run think tank Korea Development Institute lowered its forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6 percent on Feb. 11, down from its November outlook of 2 percent. Local media outlets reported that the Bank of Korea is also expected to lower its growth forecast to 1.6 percent due to worries that both domestic demand and exports would likely slow this year. When the BOK froze the benchmark interest rates last month, it took into account a revised estimate that the economic growth for this year would be between 1.6 percent and 1.7 percent. According to a Feb. 20 blog post, the central bank opted for the lowered projection based on the political uncertainty triggered by Yoon's Dec. 3 martial law attempt and weak domestic demand. The BOK had forecast the 2025 GDP growth would be 1.9 percent in November, a figure that is now seen as unrealistic. Fac tors such as the disruptive "reciprocal tariff" plan laid out by US President Donald Trump, moving closer ties with Russia, and sidelining Ukraine, add to the geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts in Seoul said that the central bank would formally revise its prediction to 1.6 percent when it announces an updated forecast on Tuesday to reflect the current sentiment and align with the latest economic developments. Some experts stated that even a forecast of 1.6 percent might turn out to be optimistic, given the host of economic factors heralding more troubles ahead. On the export front, the government and the private sector are bracing for a drastic hike in US tariffs on key export items like semiconductors and automobiles - the two most important items that bolster the country's export drive. The government must push ahead with an extra budget plan estimated to be around 35 trillion won ($24.3 billion) to help shore up the economy while mapping out plans to deal with higher tariffs. Despite the consensus on th e necessity of an extra budget, the government and rival political parties failed to produce an agreement on the extra budget or a special law on semiconductors on Thursday. Experts stress that a bipartisan agreement must be reached within the month to ensure the timely injection of funds. To revive the economy, financial support must be deployed without delay; any misstep in timing could render the effort ineffective.
South Korea Faces Economic Slowdown Amid Political and Global Trade Challenges