Bangkok, Innovate 68 Assess the trend of the Thai stock market in the quarter. 2/67 began to recover from the benefits The Fed cuts policy interest rates, expecting the SET Index to end the year at 1,550 points. Mr. Sukit Udomsirikul, Managing Director, Research Department, Innovest Soft-Landing), although the growth rate is higher than analysts had previously predicted. The US inflation rate is in a slowing direction. This gives the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the opportunity to reduce interest rates this year. As for the Chinese economy, it has begun to see the introduction of measures to stimulate the economy in many areas. If the Chinese economy grows according to the government's plan, it will have a positive effect on both the economy and the stock markets of Asia, especially Thailand. Meanwhile, the growth of the Thai economy in 2024 will depend mainly on government disbursement factors. and reducing the policy interest rate If the disbursement is done well and efficiently It is estimated that Thailand 's GDP growth will expand by 3.0% from increased public and private investment. But if the disbursement is lower than expected The Thai economy will expand by 2.5%. If this is the case, it is estimated that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) may be able to reduce interest rates 2 times. It is expected that we will begin to see interest rate reductions at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. ) in April and June because the economy is still fragile. 'As for the digital wallet policy, it has not been factored into this year's economic forecast. Because according to the news, it will take effect in the 4th quarter, if there is actually money coming into the system during that time. It is seen that this will affect the economic forecast for next year,' Mr. Sukit said. For the Thai stock market, the SET Index target is estimated at 1,550 points, suggesting the important buying point to be below 1,400 points, the expected return is 12%, pointing out the top stocks for the second quarter of 2024, recommending the c ommercial group, electronic components group. Food and beverage group, transportation group and public utilities group Focus on stocks whose earnings have bottomed out and benefit from interest rate cuts. Have good financial status and cash flow Earnings are clearly likely to recover. and benefit from the recovery of the industrial production cycle and budget disbursement, including AOT, GFPT, GULF, KCE, and SCGP. As for the digital wallet policy If there is an effect at the end of the year It will have a psychological effect. reflected in the stock market Especially in stocks in the consumption group which in the past underperform.- Source: Thai News Agency