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IMF Revises South Korea’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 2 Percent.

Seoul: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team has revised South Korea's economic growth forecast for 2025, predicting a 2 percent expansion, citing heightened uncertainties. This adjustment represents a 0.2 percentage-point decrease from an earlier estimate provided by the IMF's executive board in October. According to Yonhap News Agency, the update was announced following a two-week visit by the IMF team, led by Korean missions chief Rahul Anand. The team engaged in an annual meeting with South Korea's finance ministry, the Bank of Korea (BOK), and other relevant institutions to discuss the nation's economic conditions and policy measures. Anand noted in his statement that the country's real gross domestic product is anticipated to grow by 2 percent in 2025 as the economy aligns with its potential growth and closes the output gap. For the year 2024, the IMF team forecasted a 2.2 percent GDP growth for South Korea, a decrease from the previously projected 2.5 percent. The team's statement highlighted tha t while strong semiconductor exports are expected to support growth, they will be partially offset by a weak rebound in domestic demand. Inflation has decreased to 1.3 percent on-year as of October 2024, and it is projected to remain close to the target of 2 percent in 2025. However, the outlook is marked by high uncertainty, with risks skewed to the downside. Rahul Anand stated that, although inflation is near the BOK's target rate of 2 percent, a gradual normalization of monetary policy appears appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. He emphasized that the views shared in the statement reflect those of the IMF staff and may not necessarily align with the perspectives of the IMF's executive board. Following the mission's preliminary findings, the staff will compile a report, pending management approval, which will be submitted for discussions and decisions by the IMF's executive board.

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